Weekly Economic Report
The strength of the employment reports, ISM and election results once again leave us on the radical fringe for growth forecasts – expecting double digit growth in fourth quarter real GDP. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow estimate is currently 3.5%, and the NY Fed Nowcast is 2.9%. Consensus remains around 4%, with a range of 2-6%. Last week we laid out our call for 10% growth based on GDP sectors, as we did three months ago in our call for 33% third quarter growth. This week, we turn to the details of the employment report and high frequency data to guesstimate where the economy will be at the end of the quarter – given we have a pretty solid base for third quarter comparison and a good start on actual fourth quarter outcomes.