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Weekly Economic Report 5.24.24

Fed minutes, the Nvidia quarterly report and flash PMIs from around the world dominated the economic discussion this week. There was data on housing and unemployment claims, but those were largely ignored, as the focus remains firmly on whether the economy is strong enough for inflationary pressure to remain above target – and concern about what the Fed might do in that quite likely scenario. The clash in US equities markets, after a better-than-expected Nvidia report was offset by stronger flash PMIs – with inflation warnings embedded – shows that investors are well aware of a limit on nominal growth. The Fed minutes reinforced this view, with a few participants openly discussing the rate hikes that Chair Powell has been dismissing. Is more restrictive policy in the offing? Or is the Fed just on hold for longer?

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