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Weekly Economic Report 6.14.24

The games afoot! A ton of important information landed this week – most of which makes us more bullish that this cycle will remain strong and extend through 2024, with the Federal Reserve remaining on hold and more fiscal stimulus on the way. The first key observation is from the outcome of the EU elections, which confirm the lessons of Mexico and India – incumbents are at risk when lower income voters are unhappy. In Mexico, a strong economy carried Sheinbaum to victory despite obvious investor concerns. Meanwhile, Modi suffered a setback in booming India because the average voter did not feel they had benefitted. In Europe, poor economic performance cost most incumbents – including Victor Orban, despite his furthest right stance. Yes, there was a swing to the right, but it appears more about economics than socially based. Macron understood, and called a snap election that could put the far right in charge – and at blame -- for the domestic economy in the three years ahead of the French presidential election. Bottom line, Biden seems more vulnerable - despite possible 3% growth in the second quarter – because consumer confidence remains weak.

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