Long time readers know that the newsletter before Labor Day is one of my favorite to write. Long, long ago, during my travels with A. Gary Shilling, I learned that CEOs generally return from their long summer nap refreshed and looking into the next year. Thus, how profits are performing around this time of year has a significant influence on whether the focus will be expansion, trimming, or outright cost cutting. We are happy to report that the latest GDP revisions show corporate profits are up 10% from a year ago, and running at an 11% growth rate in the past quarter. Nonfarm proprietors’ income was up 5% over the past year, 0.5% in July, and at a 4.3% annual rate in the past three months compared to the prior three (after significant upward revisions). Bottom line, margins appear to be solid – and high – so we expect real GDP will continue to expand just above potential at roughly 2% well into 2025 (like from 2010 to 2019).
top of page
bottom of page
Kommentare