The Federal Reserve has started its long-expected easing with a bang, lowering overnight interest rates by 50 basis points. While the aggressive cut met the market’s expectation, it was larger than the 25 expected by most economists (including us) – and drew the first dissenting vote from a Fed Governor, Michelle Bowman, since 2005. She, like Powell, is a not an economist, but rather a lawyer, who fills the community bank seat at the Board of Governors. She is also the longest serving Governor after Powell. To us, the dissent looks very managed – like trying to do a 37.5 basis point cut. That would mirror the dot plot, where nine FOMC members indicated they wanted three cuts or less by year end, while ten wanted four or more. The market still sees a 40% chance of 50 basis points at the November meeting. Powell adamantly stated that the dots are not a plan, and that the Fed will be guided by the data. There will be two rounds of now closely watched employment data before the November meeting – including Nov 1st, six days before they meet.
top of page
bottom of page
Comments