Weekly Economic Report 10.24.25

The Consumer Price index is the first piece of government data released during the government shutdown, as it was needed to calculate the annual adjustment to social security benefits (and other indexations, like IRS brackets). The widely followed CPI-U (for all urban consumers) rose 0.3%, to a 3.0% gain for the year – slightly lower than expectations of 0.4% and 3.1%. However, social security checks will rise by only 2.8%, as they are indexed to the annual change in the third quarter average of the CPI-W (all urban wage earners and clerical workers), and alternative measure with slightly different weights and coverage. The core CPI-U was up a less-than-expected 0.2%, pulled down by a meager 0.1% rise in owner-occupied rent – which has a much heavier weight in the CPI than in the PCE deflator that the Fed follows. This is likely the last CPI until government reopens, as the data was collected before the shutdown. The survey for October CPI was not conducted in the week of the 12th, so a one-month gap at least is likely.

EU10-24-2025.pdf

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