President Trump has extended the pause on attacking Iran’s energy infrastructure until April 6th – the day after Easter. If he extends it again until April 10th – the day Passover ends – it will be truly biblical at forty days and forty nights. The standoff between the Democrats and Republicans appeared to have ended after its 40th day, with neither side gaining any concessions. However, the House passed their own bill – and the President signed an executive order to pay TSA.

That thing that keeps us up at night is really messing with our sleep lately. Even before the IEEPA tariffs were struck down on February 20th and the attacks on Iran began February 28th, China was experiencing a significant improvement in its trade surplus in the first two months of 2026 – with ongoing weak performance by its domestic consumer increasingly offset by booming exports to a world (other than the US) which was already searching for cheaper goods.

There is really not much point in discussing anything other than the closure of the Straits of Hormuz and the possible consequences. West Texas Intermediate crude oil was trading just over $66 on average in the week ahead of the US-Israel decapitation of Iran’s leadership. As we begin writing Friday morning, it is trading at $95 – a 44% premium. The simple math is to note that direct energy consumption accounts for 6.3% of the CPI – and was up 0.5% over the past twelve months