There was a deluge of data this week, but the main take away was that corporate America is on a capital spending binge which makes it hard to see a slowdown in the real economy any time soon – even if employees are being squeezed between higher prices and weaker wage growth. Indeed, it is that margin spread that is supporting business profits, and their investment in artificial intelligence – which the bosses see as the new source of output growth and greater profits through

With a slow week for economic data, we thought it time to pull back and examine a simple concept with very powerful effects – Pinch Points! We are all learning about the importance of geographic pinch points, with the closure of the Straits of Hormuz. However, there are pinch points in many economic applications – for example, gasoline prices and their impact on the bottom leg of the economic K. There are also, political pinch points, like the executive branch’s control of th

The Trump/Xi summit has ended and the investment world has immediately shifted back to dealing with the still closed Straits of Hormuz. Nothing at the Summit suggested an imminent reopening, so oil headed higher into the weekend. As we move toward the second half of 2026, with the US midterm election looming, all the world’s economic players are adapting to the continuing uncertainty and the higher oil price, higher inflation and higher interest rates it generates. With the e