Happy New Year! As last year ended, we continued the string of much better-than-expected economic indicators with the stunning 4.3% annualized growth rate for real GDP in the third quarter. Clearly, exports had a lot to do with the number – and in many ways it is a fill for the very weak -0.8% growth rate reported for the first quarter. However, even without exports, growth in final sales to domestic purchasers was up at a 2.9% annual rate. Perhaps even more stunning was the

Policy dominated the week, as key economic data remains scarce. Naturally, the decision by the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates by another quarter point was the focus – with three conflicting dissents and the decision to start buying $40 billion a month in short dated government paper confusing forecasts of its economic effect and future FOMC actions. On the fiscal side, the failure to pass either a Democrat or Republican supported health care bill means a big rise in

We hope that you all had a Happy Thanksgiving. We went to New York to celebrate Turkey Day on Thursday and my 70th birthday on Friday – and a lot of Christmas shopping over the weekend. The start of the following week was dominated by the Global Interdependence Center’s second annual College of Central Bankers event – which started with a Chatham House Rules meeting with 13 former central bankers from all over the world discussing monetary policy and the slide toward less int