The monthly BLS employment report carries disproportionate weight in the market’s evaluation of the economy, as was apparent in the sharp selloff in the NASDAQ in reaction to strong job growth -- which investors collectively see as encouraging tighter monetary policy. So tight that the market priced in one whole 25 percent increase in overnight rates by the end of 2026. If your business is that sensitive to rates, you are grossly overleveraged. Clearly, the sell off tells us

There was a deluge of data this week, but the main take away was that corporate America is on a capital spending binge which makes it hard to see a slowdown in the real economy any time soon – even if employees are being squeezed between higher prices and weaker wage growth. Indeed, it is that margin spread that is supporting business profits, and their investment in artificial intelligence – which the bosses see as the new source of output growth and greater profits through

With a slow week for economic data, we thought it time to pull back and examine a simple concept with very powerful effects – Pinch Points! We are all learning about the importance of geographic pinch points, with the closure of the Straits of Hormuz. However, there are pinch points in many economic applications – for example, gasoline prices and their impact on the bottom leg of the economic K. There are also, political pinch points, like the executive branch’s control of th