We are writing early so that we all may enjoy the Super Bowl. The resolved government shutdown delayed the release of the January employment report until February 11, but it will contain data on both payroll jobs and the unemployment rate, as the household survey was taken back in the week of the twelfth of January. The February survey will be underway next week. In the meantime, we can look at ADP, Revelio Labs, claims, JOLTS and Challenger, Gray & Christmas.

Well, it was another Covid-like week for us here in Germantown, Tennessee. Like much of the rest of the East Coast, we were hit by the winter storm – the worst here since 1994 (two years after our arrival at McVean). The two inches of snow was not a problem, but it was followed by freezing rain and ice. As much of the Mid-South rarely sees winter weather, there is very limited snow moving equipment. Mostly we just rely on sunshine or rain to wash winter away. This year, the t

The economy continued to expand in the fourth quarter at a solid pace, well above our estimate of potential – but nowhere near the 5% touted by the President, which was likely based on the GDP Now estimate. GDPNow was at 5.1% after the retail sales and CPI reports, with a 3.1% estimate for consumption – up from 3.0% previously. We estimate consumption is growing at closer to 2%, and with the trade and inventory data still suspect, we are more comfortable with a fourth quarter