There was no peace agreement reached in the US talks with Iran in Pakistan, but the two-week ceasefire appears to hold – which likely means oil trades near $100 for many more days as new strategies are explored. It is now more than 40 days since the start of the conflict, which means the pipeline of oil from the Gulf to East Asia is now dry. As many articles have pointed out, the issue is now price for some, but availability for others. As always, the invisible hand is hard a

President Trump has extended the pause on attacking Iran’s energy infrastructure until April 6th – the day after Easter. If he extends it again until April 10th – the day Passover ends – it will be truly biblical at forty days and forty nights. The standoff between the Democrats and Republicans appeared to have ended after its 40th day, with neither side gaining any concessions. However, the House passed their own bill – and the President signed an executive order to pay TSA.

That thing that keeps us up at night is really messing with our sleep lately. Even before the IEEPA tariffs were struck down on February 20th and the attacks on Iran began February 28th, China was experiencing a significant improvement in its trade surplus in the first two months of 2026 – with ongoing weak performance by its domestic consumer increasingly offset by booming exports to a world (other than the US) which was already searching for cheaper goods.