As always, with the first report of quarterly GDP we estimate domestic corporate profit growth – the key lead indicator in a capitalist economy! This quarter, profits as a share of GDP broke through 12%, to a record high. The key driver was a brisk 5.6% nominal growth rate – driven by a booming 23.9% annualized gain in equipment spending and a 10.5% gain for intellectual property. Nominal consumer spending rose at a 6.1% annual rate, though compensation was limited to 4.0% gr

In periods of great uncertainty, we spend less time worrying about what may happen across a plethora of scenarios, and more time concentrating on getting the current situation right. If one starts their analysis from the wrong spot, the chances of getting forecasts right obviously decline precipitously. So, as we step back from the trees to look at the forest, we believe the key driver of the big picture is unchanged – the US and China are engaged in a generational struggle f

Clearly, the most important economic signal in the world economy is whether the Straits of Hormuz is open or not. On Friday, the President jawboned markets higher and oil lower by declaring the Straits open and said negotiations were proceeding well. On Saturday, Iran declared the Straits closed, as long as the US blockade continued, and many ships turned around. Both sides are negotiating in the Press, but reality for the moment is no energy products were moving this weekend