Weekly Economic Report 10.3.25

What do we use as guideposts when the government has stopped producing data? We rely on less well followed private sector indicators – and have to go back and review their methodology to remind us why they are less watched! This week, the initial and continuing claims data did not come out on Thursday, and household and payroll employment reports did not come out on Friday. So, ADP’s monthly jobs report, out Wednesday, gained in relative importance. Similarly, the ISM Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers’ Indexes, and the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence report became more of a focal point. The market has not historically reacted to these indicators with the same intensity as the government jobs report. However, for right now they are all we have to judge whether the economy has deviated from its previous robust growth path – and it does not look like it has!

EU10-03-2025.pdf

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