Weekly Economic Report 2.13.26

Well, this is quite a weekend with Friday the thirteenth, followed by Valentine’s Day, then my late father’s 99th birthday, and finally Presidents Day. Actually, the week was exciting as well with – December retail sales, NFIB, the delayed January employment report, then ending with CPI. It started off slow with a weaker than expected retail sales report – but the January data from NFIB, employment, and the CPI all suggest a strong start to the year. This is critical as the 3.7% expected by GDPNow for fourth quarter growth, which will be announced next Friday, would bring the 2025 Q4/Q4 total to 2.8% -- with Q1’s weak -0.8% offset by three very strong quarters at 3.8%, 4.4% and 3.7% -- matching the pace from pre-covid through the start of Trump’s second term.

EU02-13-2026.pdf

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